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Abstract Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone‐depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N₂O‐depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N₂O (aN₂O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N₂O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN₂O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre‐industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal‐average N₂O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak‐to‐peak amplitudes differ several‐fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN₂O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN₂O, inferred by the difference between the surface‐troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ∼1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre‐industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN₂O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN₂O observations and atmospheric transport‐chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon‐nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming. 

Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O₂). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O₂inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O₂trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O₂inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, −0.37 ± 0.15×10¹⁴[mol/decade] for OMIP2, and −1.06 ± 0.68×10¹⁴[mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O₂inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is −0.98×10¹⁴[mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O₂inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O₂. Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O₂changes. 

Abstract. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance that has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the preindustrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 ppb (parts per billion) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr−1 in both 2020 and 2021. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6), the relative contribution of N2O to the total enhanced effective radiative forcing of greenhouse gases was 6.4 % for 1750–2022. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), our global N2O budget incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biogeochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, and process-based land and ocean modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions have increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr−1) in the past 4 decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020 (3.9 Tg N yr−1, best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources, including fossil fuel and industry, waste and wastewater, and biomass burning (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1) . For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.5 (lower–upper bounds: 10.6–27.0) Tg N yr−1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr−1. For the 2010–2019 period, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for both natural and anthropogenic sources were 18.2 (10.6–25.9) Tg N yr−1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20) Tg N yr−1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions by 31 % since the 1980s, while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the importance of reducing anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose the establishment of a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through to the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al., 2023).